Shortest Housing Cycle Ever? – September Real Estate Stats

3808 Grand Mesa DriveThe Montrose real estate market experienced a resurgence of home prices in August. The surge in the median sale price of existing homes was due to an increase in luxury home sales; 8 of the 9 highest-selling homes in August were purchased with cash. The increase in greenback purchases in the upper-end market is in conjunction with mortgage rates recently piercing upward through the 7% mark once again. Mortgage rates have been extremely volatile over the last 12 months though an upward trend has been developing over the last 7 months and is still projecting upward.

The local upper-end housing market has firmed up as of recent, with inventory levels now under the 6-month mark. This is a drastic turn-around from the spring when months of available homes in the higher price ranges were close to 24 months. Overall unit sales in all price ranges are still down 20% year-to-date.

Home prices in Montrose, up 5.8% from last year, have proven resilient. The price increases are due to a still fairly limited supply of homes. Continued home price appreciation is a nationwide trend and economists are calling this the shortest housing cycle ever.

Because of the proven resiliency of home prices, some believe that inflation is far from over and therefore the Fed will keep interest rates at current levels or continue higher. This, of course, would lead to higher mortgage rates, and possibly a second downward housing cycle, i.e. another decline in housing prices.

For this to happen, the buyer pool would need to shrink much smaller than it already has. So, if one believes a recession is on the horizon, that could be the catalyst for another period of declining prices in housing. Economists and business leaders are split on whether we’ve achieved a soft landing in the economy or we’re due for a recession. A recession would most likely lead to price declines, but as of late, there are still more buyers than homes available.

 

 

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Statistics gathered from CREN MLS, criteria are all residential not including mobile or manufactured housing in Montrose. If you have a brokerage relationship with another agency, this is not intended as a solicitation. Equal opportunity housing provider. Each office is independently owned and operated. For sale by owner data not included in research findings. Sales data reflects sales from homes not limited to the Atha Team LLC. This information was gathered from Keller Williams, The National Association of Realtors, CoreLogic data analysis firm, Montrose Association of Realtors, CMU Department of Business and Economics, InfoSparks, YCharts, National Association of Realtors, Cornerstone Home Lending, and the Mortgage Brokers Association. This data is considered accurate but is not guaranteed. Copyright Atha Team LLC 2023. All Rights Reserved.