As summer starts to come to a close, the statistics paint a picture of seemingly conflicting information. On the one hand, inventory is almost exactly double what it was at this time last year. August 2024 held 140-150 active listings, and as of today, August 2025, we are looking at 288 active listings in the Montrose Market. This would seem to indicate a significant shift and possible tipping of the scales from Seller’s market to Buyer’s market. But then you take a look at average sale price, the stats from July of 2024 show an average price of $475,000, while July of 2025 ended with an average of $499,000.
So which one is it? A buyer’s market or a seller’s market, and the answer is… a little bit of both. In July, there were 44 closed transactions under $500,000 and 30 closed transactions over $500,000. This gives us 3.1 months of inventory under $500K and 5 months of inventory over $500K. What is very surprising is that for the homes that sold over $500K, it wasn’t mostly homes hovering at or around the average home sale price for the region. They were actually luxury homes. The average price for homes sold over $500K was $775K with a median of $745K. So for our luxury folks who often feel like they are the first to exit the market when things start to get waffly, there is so much light at the end of the tunnel for you.
High Interest Rates May Be the New Normal
I can’t seem to be able to walk to grab a delicious Red Bull from Walmart without being asked 48 times when interest rates are going to come down, and the short answer is: they aren’t. At least not in the current forecasting.
As a team, we recently attended an economic presentation from an economist who consults for the Fed, and his message to us was, “Not one indicator we use is telling us to reduce interest rates.” He went on to say that the Fed can forecast pretty easily for the next 6 to 12 months and as of right now, there was no plan to produce a significant reduction in interest rates for the foreseeable future.
That being said, we did see a small reduction in the last week from the high 6% to the mid 6%.
It appears the market may need a major Black Swan event for a significant reduction in rates, and we probably want to ask ourselves if it’s worth it. These events often have broad foreboding consequences, and while you may save money on your mortgage, they can negatively affect the lives of many people.
First Timers and Investors Leave the Market
For the bulk of my career, you entered every month with a first-time home buyer in your pocket and a core group of investors you could count on to purchase a good deal from you pretty much every month. Those days are gone. Cash flow is nearly impossible to find with interest rates over 7% (investment lending has higher rates), leaving investors supplementing mortgages each month as rents aren’t high enough to make the spread. First-time homebuyers are getting squeezed from both sides, as move-up and downsize buyers come in with large down payments and more attractive terms. This leaves many first-time buyers feeling stranded with few good options.
But there’s hope! As a team, our buyer’s agents are negotiating more now than we have in a long time. As inventory is stacking up, buyers have more opportunities to submit previously untouchable offers. Submitting offers with less desirable terms can be a numbers game, and we are finally seeing the opportunity in the market to get out there and do the negotiating necessary to get our investors and first-timers back into homes. So if you fall into one of these two categories, stay frosty and don’t get discouraged.
Click Here to View Residential Sold – July
