A Chilly Draft In The Housing Market? – November Real Estate Stats

We’ve been experiencing a glorious fall here in Montrose, filled with sunny 60-70 degree days. As I write this now, a chilly, biting wind out of the south is signaling the changing of the guards. The real estate market in Montrose very much follows this pattern as well, as many people who purchase homes in Montrose are content to ditch the snowy, mountain passes for the winter and delay real estate plans til spring comes around. However, a different type of ‘front’ appears to be moving in.

This past month saw interest rates crest 8%, signaling a 23-year high (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67152845). There is no question that the real estate market in Montrose is ‘cooling off,’ but it appears to be more significant than our simple seasonal cycle. Sales in October compared with October of 2022 were down approximately 27%, continuing a trend that we’ve been seeing develop for most of 2023 so far. That said, the age-old principle of supply and demand continues to keep prices high – so high that many first-time home buyers are tapping out of home search as interest rates have made payments out of reach. Interestingly, with the average age of a first-time home buyer hovering around 28-29 years old for multiple decades, it recently jumped from 33 to 36 just last year (https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-finds-share-of-first-time-home-buyers-smaller-older-than-ever-before).

Another leading indicator that we look at is the amount of homes that go under contract per week in Montrose. Over the last 4 weeks, there have been 42 homes that have executed contracts for sale. This is down from 51 homes from the same time period last year, a whopping 84 in October 2021, and 82 in October 2020. Keep in mind that these homes that go under contract do not always close, and we are definitely seeing homes come back on the market. A common factor here is that many buyer’s eyes have proven to be bigger than their stomachs once they see what their monthly payment is going to be. Ideally, a buyer would be counseled on these factors before they actually write an offer on a home, and even before seeing the home. But that does not always happen, and unfortunately, many sellers get bad news mid-contract that the buyers are not able to make their payment happen.

On a positive note, the higher-end market in Montrose has had 3-4 consecutively healthy months, rebounding from a slow start to the year into the summer. In examining months of available inventory, an eyebrow-raising 2.36 months exists in the $700-799k price range. While caution must be exercised in deriving too many conclusions with such a small sample size, one can conclude that there is value and healthy activity in the higher end. This speaks yet again to the attractive features that Montrose provides to many semi-retired/retired folks who continue to move in from the Front Range, Arizona, and higher-priced markets. Buyers in the lower price ranges are typically the ones who are more affected by rates.




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Statistics gathered from CREN MLS, criteria are all residential not including mobile or manufactured housing in Montrose. If you have a brokerage relationship with another agency, this is not intended as a solicitation. Equal opportunity housing provider. Each office is independently owned and operated. For sale by owner data not included in research findings. Sales data reflects sales from homes not limited to the Atha Team LLC. This information was gathered from Keller Williams, The National Association of Realtors, CoreLogic data analysis firm, Montrose Association of Realtors, CMU Department of Business and Economics, InfoSparks, YCharts, National Association of Realtors, Cornerstone Home Lending, and the Mortgage Brokers Association. This data is considered accurate but is not guaranteed. Copyright Atha Team LLC 2023. All Rights Reserved.


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