Stagflation in Real Estate? – May Real Estate Stats

Montrose Market

The Montrose real estate market is clearly shifting, although momentum increased last month heading into the traditional selling season. Home prices are leveling as housing inventory increases substantially over $600K. Unit sales are down 37% year-over-year, while the median sales price shot up to $489K last month.  The rolling three-month average paints a far less-drastic picture, with unit sales down 25% and home prices flat.

The housing market over $600K has now technically transitioned into a buyer’s market, with months of stagnant inventory hitting 8 to 10.5 months. This upper-end market seems sluggish though prices still remain elevated. A stagflation type of environment is brewing in the real estate market if prices continue to rise. Homes sold for 100% of asking price last month, giving evidence to this observation.

Real (fully-constructed) inventory is still quite low, again keeping values high. This shifting environment seems somewhat of a quagmire as the market adjusts to the reality of low inventory coupled with high values and high interest rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae are predicting rates to retreat to 5.5 or 6% by years-end. Frankly, this is anyone’s guess. Arguably, if rates do come down, and depending on how far, we could end-up in a heated market once again.

The macro-level trajectory of our market (see graphs) seems to be pointing to a downward shift. Looking at unit sales, sales volume, and inventory, we can see that housing activity is indeed decelerating.

Click Here to View Residential Sold – April

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Statistics gathered from CREN MLS, criteria are all residential not including mobile or manufactured housing in Montrose. If you have a brokerage relationship with another agency, this is not intended as a solicitation. Equal opportunity housing provider. Each office is independently owned and operated. For sale by owner data not included in research findings. Sales data reflects sales from homes not limited to the Atha Team LLC. This information was gathered from Keller Williams, The National Association of Realtors, CoreLogic data analysis firm, Montrose Association of Realtors, CMU Department of Business and Economics, InfoSparks, YCharts, National Association of Realtors, Cornerstone Home Lending, and the Mortgage Brokers Association. This data is considered accurate but is not guaranteed. Copyright Atha Team LLC 2023. All Rights Reserved.


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