Where is Housing Headed in 2024? – December Real Estate Stats

3808 Grand Mesa DriveThe Montrose market is quite slow for December relative to the last few years of activity. There are very few homes available for sale and very few buyers actively looking. The big meeting this week at the Federal Reserve will greatly affect what happens in the real estate market in 2024. All eyes are looking to the Fed, and what they signal, regarding interest rate movement for next year. This next meeting is like the Superbowl for finance, and will most likely set the interest rate tone for the foreseeable future. Everything from home loans to auto loans will be affected by the Fed’s meeting this week.

Financial experts and economists are split on what exactly is going to happen here in the next six months with interest rates. The first camp believes the US economy has avoided a recession and squelched inflation. Pop-the champagne! Hence the Fed will begin lowering interest rates this spring and therefore achieve the elusive “soft landing”.

The second camp believes that inflation may be stickier to subdue now that we’re close to the Fed’s target 2% inflation rate. Because of this, they predict that the Fed will keep interest rates at the same elevated level through most of 2024 until core inflation reaches their 2% target. Keeping rates higher for longer would increase the chances of a recession.

If the first camp’s predictions come true, and mortgage rates dip below 6.5%, we’re most likely going to have a repeat of a frenzied and inflated housing market. Does “multiple-offer scenario” ring a bell? Prices in Montrose are already up 7% annually and any mortgage rate drop will most likely heat up buyer activity and further drive up home prices, expanding the wealth gap and prolonging the housing affordability issue for first-time buyers.

If the second camp’s predictions become reality in 2024, we’re most likely going to have a real estate market similar to 2023: depressed activity with fewer consumers willing to make a move due to high mortgage rates. With that said, mortgage rates have dropped approximately 1% in the last 6-weeks. Therefore, some buyers see this as an opportunity to buy now, and not have to compete with other buyers come spring if rates drop further.

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Statistics gathered from CREN MLS, criteria are all residential not including mobile or manufactured housing in Montrose. If you have a brokerage relationship with another agency, this is not intended as a solicitation. Equal opportunity housing provider. Each office is independently owned and operated. For sale by owner data not included in research findings. Sales data reflects sales from homes not limited to the Atha Team LLC. This information was gathered from Keller Williams, The National Association of Realtors, CoreLogic data analysis firm, Montrose Association of Realtors, CMU Department of Business and Economics, InfoSparks, YCharts, National Association of Realtors, Cornerstone Home Lending, and the Mortgage Brokers Association. This data is considered accurate but is not guaranteed. Copyright Atha Team LLC 2023. All Rights Reserved.

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